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Core Indicators Report
Executive Summary
Healthy Community Initiative
Community Indicators
Project Health Strategies, Inc.
John R. Hagen, Ph.D.
August 1999

Quality of Life

Focus:

Education Indicator:
Graduation rate

Rationale

As skill demands increase in the workforce, people without a high school diploma will have a more difficult time finding employment or advancing beyond low wage jobs. Tracking this rate can help understand the preparedness of our community's citizens to participate in all aspects of community life.

Measures:

Percentage of students entering ninth grade in public schools four years ago who graduated by the end of the current year

Data Analysis

The latest published graduation rates for St. Joseph County high schools shows an average of about 85 percent. The graduation rate is the probability that a student will complete four years of high school without dropping out. Expressed mathematically, the graduation is the product of each year's retention rate. With a final graduation rate of 85 percent, this means an average annual dropout rate of about 4 percent.

School corporations varied in their graduation rates. In 1997, New Prairie and Penn showed rates higher than 90 percent. Mishawaka and the South Bend School Corporation scored in the mid-80 percent range, while John Glenn and Union-North were in the low-80 percent range. The Indiana average in 1997 was 88 percent.

Focus:

Public Safety Indicator:
Overall crime rate

Rationale

Crime rates provide important information about our personal and public safety. Crime data are collected a variety of different ways, through officially recorded data gathered by various local and federal agencies (including police departments, the Bureau of Justice Statistics [BJS], and the Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI]), as well as through self-reported criminal involvement, and victimization surveys like the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Specifically, the index crimes include murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assaults (violent crimes) and burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson (property crimes).

Although people in the U.S. are very worried about the crime rate, in actuality the rate has been declining over the last 7 years or longer, depending on the type of crime examined.

Measures:

Number of reported index crimes per 100,000 residents

Data Analysis

The trend in St. Joseph County for both reported violent and property crimes is downward. There was a statistically significant decline in the rates for both types of crimes between the years 1993 and 1997. The rate for reported violent crimes was 30-52 percent higher in 1993 compared to 1997; for reported property crime, the rate was 7 - 10 percent higher.

In the city of South Bend, over recent seven-month reporting periods for the years 1996-98, the total number of reported crimes declined 14 percent. Violent crimes dropped 30 percent while property crimes declined 12 percent. The reported rate of index crimes in St. Joseph County was significantly higher than the rest of Indiana over the 1993-97 period. The overall crime index, which includes violent crimes (murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assaults) and property crimes (burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson), was 6,032 per 100,000 population over the five-year period compared to the rest of the State at a rate of 4,461.

In short, over that five-year period, St. Joseph County had a rate that was 35 percent higher. That rate was higher due to a larger rate of property crimes in the County. For the five-year period, while the reported violent crime index was nearly the same for both the County and the rest of the State, the reported property crime index (excluding arson) was 39-41 percent higher, with a County rate of 5,514 compared to the rate of 3,943 for the rest of Indiana. The reported property crime rates of burglary and larceny were notably higher in St. Joseph County during the period under study.

Focus:

Public Safety Indicator:
Juvenile crime rate

Rationale

Americans today are very concerned regarding juvenile violent crime. The problem seems to be pervasive and on the rise, and public policies are being developed to treat juveniles like adults in the criminal justice system, and to mete out harsher sentences and penalties. Juveniles (those under age 18) were responsible for 17.2 percent of all violent crimes and 25 percent of all property crimes cleared in the U.S. in 1997. The majority of juvenile violent crimes in the U.S. are for aggravated assault and robbery. Homicide is the first, second or third leading cause of death for black and white males and females between the ages of 15 and 24. High risk and delinquent behaviors among youth has invaded the school setting.

During the 1995-96 school year, in the U.S. 4-5 percent of students reported ever carrying a gun to school, approximately 20 percent had carried a knife or other weapon, and approximately one third had physically harmed another student.

Reported victimization rates were similar or higher: a little more than 10 percent had been threatened with a gun, knife or club while at school; 30-40 percent had been physically threatened, and anywhere from 15-30 percent were afraid.

Measures:

  1. Number of juveniles taken into custody by police because they were suspected of committing a violent crime (per 100,000 juveniles aged 10-19)
  2. Percentage of juvenile arrests that involved violent crimes
  3. Percentage of total arrests that were juveniles

Data Analysis

In 1996 in St. Joseph County, the juvenile arrest rate (per 100,000 population ages 10-19) was 1,721. This compared favorably with the rest of the State of Indiana at 1,802. Over the four-year period, the overall juvenile arrest rate for index crimes has declined 20 percent per annum, in large part due to a reduction in arrests for property crimes. Juvenile arrests as a percent of total arrests have declined as well.

In 1993, juvenile arrests accounted for over half (53.4%) of all arrests; by 1996, that share had declined to 39 percent. Still, the County's rate remained higher than the rest of the State. In 1996 in the rest of the State of Indiana, juvenile arrests comprised 32.7 percent of all arrests. Juvenile arrests for violent crimes as a percent of all juvenile arrests have declined in the County from over 18 percent in 1993 to about 10 percent in 1996. Accordingly, the proportion of arrests for property crimes has increased.

Focus:

Environment Indicator:
Air quality

Rationale

Air pollution is hazardous to the health of any community. Individuals already disabled by lung and heart disease are especially likely to be hospitalized when air quality is poor. Young children playing outdoors are also susceptible to the effects of air pollution and The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports in Healthy People 2000 that environmental factors, such as ozone depletion and other air pollutants, may have contributed to rising morbidity and mortality.

Measures:

Number of days exceeding EPA air quality standards for CO emissions, airborne particulates, and ozone emissions.

Data Analysis

CO Emissions.

For the 1994-96 period, CO emissions monitored at the South Bend Water Works averaged less than half of the EPA standard value (9 ppm), with a high of 5.9 and a low of 3.4 averaged over an 8-hour period. Particulate Emission (PM-10). Small particulate emissions monitored over a six-year period (1993-98) at three sites through St. Joseph County were all within the acceptable standard of 50 g/m3 on an annual average basis.

Ozone.

Ozone levels are monitored at four sites throughout St. Joseph County. Over the six-year period 1993-98, the standard for a 1-hour average of 0.12 ppm was exceeded five times - twice in 1997 and three times in 1998. The new (lower) EPA standard of .085 ppm (or 85 part per billion (ppb)) likely will mean that St. Joseph will be a non-attainment county. The new standard of between 85 and 104 ppb, based on 8-hour periods, means the air is considered "unhealthy for sensitive groups."

Overview Community CapacityEconomic Vitality Health Quality of Life

 
 

Quality of Life Indicators

    

 

Education
"As skill demands increase in the workforce, people without a highschool diploma will have a more difficult time finding employment..."

Public Safety
" Although people in the U.S. are very worried about the crime rate, in actuality the rate has been declining over the last 7 years or longer..."

Environment
"...studies have documented increases in coughs and colds among healthy youngsters during high pollution periods."

John R. Hagen, Ph.D.
Executive Summary
August 1999